Abstract

NIETO, Emmanuel; MEJIA, Luz M.  and  CARDONA, Álvaro. Employment and unemployment probabilities in Medellin: empirical evidence for thinking unemployment insurance in Colombia. Rev. Fac. Nac. Salud Pública [online]. 2013, vol.31, n.1, pp.67-74. ISSN 0120-386X.

OBJECTIVE::to estimate the probability of employment and unemployment of the labor force in the metropolitan area of Medellin-Colombia and analyze the duration of unemployment by individual characteristics and job search time of a group of unemployed workers in this area in 2004, to provide scientific evidence for making decisions on social protection policies.   METHODOLOGY cross sectional study that used secondary sources and primary. Two central categories of analysis were defined for the purposes of the study: labor force employed and unemployed labor force. For relevant purposes of the study, logistic regression and nonparametric estimation of Kaplan-Meier survival tables techniques were applied.   RESULTS : the unemployed men, aged between 29 and 44 years, with university education and work experience in the service sector, were the least likely to remain registered unemployed, and therefore lower average seek time employment.   DISCUSSION : the main findings of the study and its relationship with other local and national, evidence that much unemployment in Colombia is long lasting and that this should focus the discussion on the scope and nature of unemployment insurance.

Keywords : employment; unemployment; insurance; social protection.

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