Resumo

CHACON-CAMACHO, Diana; SMITH-CASTRO, Vanessa; ALFARO-BARQUERO, Alejandra  e  MOLINA-DELGADO, Mauricio. Computer Simulation of Performance Predictions in the Context of Standardized Tests. Rev. colomb. educ. [online]. 2025, n.94, a19808.  Epub 01-Jan-2025. ISSN 0120-3916.  https://doi.org/10.17227/rce.num94-19808.

When a person faces a test, they make predictions about their performance; these estimates are known as metacognitive judgments. Metacognitive judgments can differ from actual performance due to factors such as anxiety, gender, and others. Frequently, the difference between metacognitive judgment and actual results generates a negative effect that, in the long term, can compromise a person's self-concept. To estimate the probability of correctly answering an item in a standardized test, the Rasch equation is used, which depends on two variables: the subject's ability in the construct and the difficulty of the item. The hypothesis of this study is that humans perform a process analogous to that described by the Rasch equation to make metacognitive judgments. The aim of this study is to propose a computational model of the relationship between item performance in standardized math tests and metacognitive judgments of performance prediction. Multiple computer simulations were conducted, assuming the Rasch equation to generate estimates of the likelihood of subjects correctly answering an item by altering the ability parameters of the subject and the difficulty of the item through additive errors. These simulations were compared with metacognitive judgments made by students in previous tests, and two simulations were found to have results similar to the real data.

Palavras-chave : metacognitive judgments; Rasch equation; computational modeling.

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