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Print version ISSN 0120-4483


ARANGO, Santiago; PRADO, John Jairo  and  DYNER, Isaac. Public Policy Assessment for Crime Reduction in Medellín: A System Dynamics Approach. Ens. polit. econ. [online]. 2009, vol.27, n.60, pp.80-108. ISSN 0120-4483.

Medellín has been one of the most violent cities around the globe, where crime rates have been decreasing during the recent years. The continuation of such decreasing path depends on the effectiveness of public policy. This research tests public policy, both preventive and punitive, by using a System Dynamics model that includes the criminal career and Becker’s economic theory of crime. Simulations suggest policies to reduce the susceptibility of population as well as to increase both policing and sentences. This methodological approach can be extrapolated to similar social systems. JEL classification: C1, C63, I3.

Keywords : crime; criminal career; simulation; system dynamics; system thinking.

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