Abstract

TENJO, Fernando  and  LOPEZ, Martha. Early Warning Indicators for Latin America. Ens. polit. econ. [online]. 2010, vol.28, n.63, pp.232-259. ISSN 0120-4483.

We explore the performance of a set of early warning indicators for a group of Latin American economies under the endogenous cycle perspective. For this group of countries, the paper confirms the results of previous work on industrialized countries, which indicate that a combination of asset prices and credit provides valuable information of probable future financial crises. However, we go a step further in the analysis of emerging economies and find that a combination of capital flows from abroad and credit is an even superior leading indicator of such events.

Keywords : financial (in)stability; early warning indicators; financial accelerator.

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