Abstract

ORTIZ-YUSTY, Carlos; RESTREPO, Adriana  and  PAEZ, Vivian P.. Potential Distribution of Podocnemis lewyana (Reptilia: Podocnemididae) and Its Possible Fluctuation Under Different Global Climate Change Scenarios. Acta biol.Colomb. [online]. 2014, vol.19, n.3, pp.471-481. ISSN 0120-548X.  https://doi.org/10.15446/abc.v19n3.40909.

We implemented a species distribution modelling approach to establish the potential distribution of Podocnemis lewyana, to explore the climatic factors that may influence the species' distribution and to evaluate possible changes in distribution under future climate scenarios. The distribution models predicted a continuous distribution from south to north along the Magdalena River, from Rivera and Palermo in the department of Huila to the departments of Atlántico and Magdalena in the north. Temperature was the variable most influential in the distribution of P. lewyana; this species tends to be present in warm regions with low temperature variability. The distribution model predicted an increase in the geographic range of P. lewyana under climate change scenarios. However, taking into account the habitat preferences of this species and its strong association with water, this result should be treated with caution since the model considered only terrestrial climatic variables. Given the life history characteristics of this species (temperature-dependent sex determination, high pivotal temperature and a very narrow transition range) and the negative effect of changes in hydrological regimes on embryo survival, expansion of the potential distribution of P. lewyana in the future does not mean that the species will not be affected by global climate change.

Keywords : environmental variables; Maxent; niche modeling.

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