Abstract

CASTRO, María Rosa; ECHEGARAY, Marcelo Eduardo; RODRIGUEZ, Rosa Ana  and  UDAQUIOLA, Stella Maris. Statistical modelling of fine red wine production. Ing. Investig. [online]. 2010, vol.30, n.1, pp.146-150. ISSN 0120-5609.

Producing wine is a very important economic activity in the province of San Juan in Argentina; it is therefore most important to predict production regarding the quantity of raw material needed. This work was aimed at obtaining a model relating kilograms of crushed grape to the litres of wine so produced. Such model will be used for predicting precise future values and confidence intervals for determined quantities of crushed grapes. Data from a vineyard in the province of San Juan was thus used in this work. The sampling coefficient of correlation was calculated and a dispersion diagram was then constructed; this indicated a lineal relationship between the litres of wine obtained and the kilograms of crushed grape. Two lineal models were then adopted and variance analysis was carried out because the data came from normal populations having the same variance. The most appropriate model was obtained from this analysis; it was validated with experimental values, a good approach being obtained.

Keywords : wine industry; probabilistic model; lineal regression.

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