Objective:

The aim of this study is to estimate the number and direct medical cost of cerebrovascular accident (stroke) and the adverse events in patients on warfarin due to atrial fibrillation.

Methods:

A budget impact analysis methodology was used to estimate the number of cases and cost of the events. The target population was based on Colombian population information, as well as the rates of use of warfarin according to risk and the distribution of its therapeutic time range. The events were estimated base on reported probabilities, and the costs used in the model were calculated from a cohort of stroke patients that was performed in the Cardiovascular Foundation of Colombia.

Results:

The target population consisted of 84,623 patients in 1 year. The total cost the strokes and bleeding was €10,426,275.28 ($36 852 236 476 million COP (Note: 3,500 /3,000Colombian Pesos (COP) = 1 Euro approx). The total cost strokes was €1,415,903.61 ($5 004 588 241 COP). The total costs of intracranial and gastrointestinal bleeding was €3,359,894.66 ($11 875 730 234 COP) and €5,445,106.17 ($19 246 023 614 COP), respectively. Retroperitoneal bleeding, epistaxis (nosebleeds) and urinary tract bleeding was €208,200.05 ($735 894 387 COP). The sensitivity analysis showed that an adjustment of 10% in the therapeutic time ranges could save €1,191,651.52 ($4 211 957 037 COP).

Conclusions:

The cost of the cerebrovascular accident and the adverse effects due to warfarin is large. However, an adjustment in the therapeutic range times could save costs, which means patient lives.

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