Abstract

MANOTAS DUQUE, Diego Fernando  and  TORO DIAZ, Héctor Hernán. Investment decision analysis using net present value at risk (NPV at Risk). Rev.fac.ing.univ. Antioquia [online]. 2009, n.49, pp.199-213. ISSN 0120-6230.

Strategic investment decisions are core activities for organizational development. Investment projects faces several types of risk: financial, political, market risk, among others. Although there are several methodologies approaching the valuation of projects under risk conditions, most of them has some fails, but still they can be used as a basement for developing better financial and economic indicators. This work faces the problem of economic project valuation, and particularly, a usual lack of the commonly used Net Present Value (NPV) indicator, related to the calculation of the NPV for a single static scenario. Using a combination of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), and risk valuation methodologies that accounts for risk-return relation, a methodology for project valuation is proposed, that include explicit measurement of risk, supposed to be used mainly at strategic level decisions. To illustrate the proposed approach, there are two instances of application, the first on technology selection and the second decision on renewal of sugar cane crops.

Keywords : Net Present Value (NPV); Value at Risk (VaR); project appraisal.