Abstract

BARRAEZ GUZMAN, Daniel  and  PERDOMO LEON, Mariela. Structural behavior and forecast of macroeconomic variables: combining DSGE and VAR. Semest. Econ. [online]. 2010, vol.13, n.27, pp.81-97. ISSN 0120-6346.

In this paper, we estimate at the same time a VAR and a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (DSGE) for the Venezuelan economy using Bayesian methods. The results show that the estimated VAR has a better predictive performance than traditional VAR. The DSGE response to a monetary shock and its transmission mechanism agree with economic theory, the product shrinks and this reduces inflation. The estimation technique is robust enough to deal with economies that do not have a stable behavior.

Keywords : Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model; VAR; bayesian estimation; forecast.

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