Abstract

SCHERGER, Valeria; TERCENO, Antonio  and  VIGIER, Hernán. FUZZY RELATIONS AS A PREDICTION TOOL OF BUSINESS FAILURE CAUSES IN THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR. Semest. Econ. [online]. 2016, vol.19, n.41, pp.191-228. ISSN 0120-6346.  https://doi.org/10.22395/seec.v19n41a8.

This article evaluates the techniques used for the detection and prediction of business cause failures. The main limitations of the classical prediction models for business insolvency are exposed and a fuzzy analysis as an alternative to identify the relation between failure causes and the businesses´ visible symptoms. As complement, a Balanced Scorecard is used as global analysis tool for the base company in order to detect the cause of failure. The application of the balance scorecard allows defining a list of origination causes for the problems faced by the companies. These are valued using linguistic labels for detecting the most common diseases that can lead to business failure. Concern ing traditional models, the applied methodology in the work allows to predict the possible failure of a company and identify the causes.

Keywords : Business failure; fuzzy relations; command board; financial economic ratios.

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