Resumo

COMBITA-MORA, Gonzalo; PEREZ-RODRIGUEZ, Oscar Eduardo  e  RAMOS-BARRERA, María Gabriela. SPECULATIVE FINANCING OF HOUSING IN COLOMBIA: AN ANALYSIS OF PRICE DYNAMICS, 2000-2016. Semest. Econ. [online]. 2018, vol.21, n.49, pp.171-197. ISSN 0120-6346.  https://doi.org/10.22395/seec.v21n49a7.

This paper studies the dynamics of housing prices in Colombia from 2000 to 2016. The non-con ventional theoretical foundations for price determination are presented, along with two quantitative strategies: 1) a descriptive study of the market and the possible financial fragility that has allowed the increase in prices of new housing; and 2) a VEC econometric model that captures the short and long term price determinants. The paper concludes that the dynamics of housing prices is influenced by mortgage loans and construction costs, and has a strong long-term relationship between current and previous behavior of prices, made evident in speculative financial scenarios.

JEL CLASSIFICATION: B26, G01, G12

CONTENTS: Introduction; 1. Housing market according to the neoclassical approach; 2. Methodological approach; 3. Housing market in Colombia; 4. Econometric analysis of the New Housing Price Index (IPVN) in Colombia; 5. Discussion and conclusions; Bibliography.

Palavras-chave : Monetary production economy; housing prices; speculation.

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