Abstract

PILAY TOALA, Félix; GALLARDO MONTES, Lady  and  VASQUEZ MUNOZ, Lissette. PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS AND SCENARIO OF BAKERY SMEs, MEGASUPERIOR CASE, IN THE PROVINCE TSACHILAS - ECUADOR. Semest. Econ. [online]. 2020, vol.23, n.55, pp.205-219.  Epub Oct 08, 2021. ISSN 0120-6346.  https://doi.org/10.22395/seec.v23n55a9.

The research was a degree thesis, the objective was to publicize the benefits of the use of prospective discipline for the correct direction and decision making in bakery companies, megasuperior case. The applied methodology is quali-quantitative with descriptive research, it used a MIC MAC software to analyze the relationship between the MACTOR variables that establishes the identification of actors for convergences and divergences, 100 Delphi surveys of a convenience sample were applied to experts to obtain probabilities simple and conditional. The obtaining of key factors was carried out through the diagnosis for the information from primary and secondary sources, we proceeded to identify scenarios where the objectives were met, execution procedures were verified in the pertinence tree. It was contrasted with Godet's theory for data processing that allowed reducing uncertainties in the face of subjective probabilities. The results showed changes that occurred and originated from high indebtedness, poor sales policy and market restriction. The findings using the MIC MAC method, existence of critical nodes due to the high level of dependency, low inventory turnover and low sales force. Conclusions, that indebtedness exceeds healthy financial limits.

CLASSIFICATION JEL L88, Ml and M21

CONTENT Introduction; 1. Methodology; 2. Results; 3. Conclusions; Bibliography.

Keywords : Scenarios; Decision Making; Critical Nodes; Bakers; Inventory.

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