Resumo

DELGADO-ARIAS, Jhon Alexander  e  RAMIREZ-OSPINA, Duván Emilio. Informal Labor in the Capital Cities of the Colombian Coffee Region: an Analysis through the Probabilistic Models for Year 2019. Semest. Econ. [online]. 2021, vol.24, n.57, pp.171-189.  Epub 23-Maio-2022. ISSN 0120-6346.  https://doi.org/10.22395/seec.v24n57a8.

This study has the objective of analyzing the probability of being an informal worker in the capital cities of the Colombian Coffee Region based upon the institutional statement on informality according to the National Administrative Statistics Department (DANE in its Spanish initials). With the information of the Great integrated survey for homes of 2019, three probability models are estimated: the lineal, Probit and Logit. The results of these estimations allow the study to conclude that there is a higher probability of becoming informal for someone living in Armenia and a lower one for someone living in Manizales; in other words, smaller cities generate a bigger amount of informality in comparison to cities with diversifies productive activities, as is the case for Pereira. Furthermore, in the estimated models, the study found that the school level variable is not significant, the age variable has an inverse relation with informality, while gender and family relationship with the business owner have a direct relation with the probability of having an informal job.

Palavras-chave : Informal labor; labor market; probabilistic models; Colombia.

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