Abstract

LOPEZ FILUN, Pablo Andrés. An Analysis of Precipitation Thresholds of Landslide Processes on Urbanized Slopes of the Central- Southern Chilean Coast. Cuad. Geogr. Rev. Colomb. Geogr. [online]. 2015, vol.24, n.2, pp.93-112. ISSN 0121-215X.  https://doi.org/10.15446/rcdg.v24n2.50212.

This article offers an analysis of historical records of the 24-hour precipitation levels associated with landslide processes occurring from 1990-1999 and 2000- 2013 on urbanized slopes of the city of Talcahuano in central-southern Chile. Precipitation thresholds were analyzed using intensity-duration (I-D) ratios, and return periods and probabilities of surpassing limits were determined. The results indicated that with a return period of four years, there is a 75% probability under the climatic conditions recorded in those years of surpassing a precipitation level of 85.1 mm in 24 hours. The precipitation concentrated in a time period shorter than four hours represents the critical threshold of destabilization, with intensities on the order of 26.5 mm.

Keywords : risk management; regional planning; landslide; natural risk; precipitation threshold.

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