Resumo

RUIZ, Jorge  e  MOLANO-GONZALEZ, Nicolás. Precipitation, Temperature and Dryness Ratio (1973-2011) in the island of Vieja Providencia, Colombia in a Global Warming Scenario: What is Changing?. Cuad. Geogr. Rev. Colomb. Geogr. [online]. 2017, vol.26, n.1, pp.25-35. ISSN 0121-215X.  https://doi.org/10.15446/rcdg.v26n1.56019.

Abstract The article examines the statistical analysis of mean monthly precipitation and temperature and the annual dryness ratio for the period 1973-2011 in Providencia Isla, Colombia, in order to look for significant trends. 16 missing monthly values were imputed using a sarima model. Results suggest that there was no significant trend in precipitation, although its variance has undoubtedly increased. Temperature showed a pronounced increase from 1973 to 1981 and the Mann-Kendall test exhibited a positive and highly significant trend for the entire study period although the Dickey-Fuller test was non-significant. Temperature values also displayed increasing variability. Analysis of the Annual Dryness Ratio trend produced contradictory results, and no ENSO effect was observed.

Palavras-chave : climate change; Colombia; El Niño; precipitation; Providencia Isla; dryness ratio; temperature.

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