Abstract

PINO URIBE, Juan Federico. DEVELOPMENT TRAJECTORIES: A NOVEL WAY OF CONCEPTUALIZING VARIATIONS OF SUBNATIONAL DEMOCRACY IN COLOMBIA, 1988 - 2015. anal.polit. [online]. 2018, vol.31, n.92, pp.115-136. ISSN 0121-4705.  https://doi.org/10.15446/anpol.v31n92.71102.

This article provides a theoretical discussion with regard to means of classifying subnational democracy developed by authors who have investigated this phenomenon in Latin America. The discussion evinces the limitations and lack of precision apparent in a majority of the perceptions that seek to conceptually and empirically grasp the nature of change over time in variations of subnational democracy and proposes as a means of studying this phenomenon the concept of “development trajectories”. The concept is tested empirically through a case study of subnational democracy in Colombia comparing the aggregate method of studying Colombian democracy carried out in different studies on this topic with group-based trajectory modeling, concluding with the observation that development of subnational democracy in Colombia has been heterogeneous and characterized by differing trajectories of openness and stability at the local level.

Keywords : Subnational democracy; development trajectories; political parties; group-based trajectory modeling.

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