Abstract

SALAMANCA, Andrés  and  MONROY, Viviana. DEUDA EXTERNA PÚBLICA E INVERSIÓN EN COLOMBIA 1994-2007: EVIDENCIA DE UN MODELO NO-LINEAL TAR. Cuad. Econ. [online]. 2009, vol.28, n.51, pp.205-243. ISSN 0121-4772.

This document analyzes the relationship between national government external debt and private investment for Colombia during the period 1994 to 2007, by means of a nonlinear TAR model. In this work MCMC methods and the Bayesian approach were used to estimate the model. The results show evidence of a nonlinear relationship between the variables studied, explained by TAR model. Moreover, the analysis indicates the existence of an inverse relationship between private investment growth and national government external debt growth.

Keywords : over-indebtedness hypothesis; public external debt; investment; TAR; Bayesian approach; MCMC.

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