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Cuadernos de Economía

Print version ISSN 0121-4772

Abstract

SALAMANCA LUGO, Andrés. SINCRONIZACIÓN DE LOS CICLOS ECONÓMICOS: EL CASO DE COLOMBIA, ECUADOR Y VENEZUELA. Cuad. Econ. [online]. 2012, vol.31, n.spe57, pp.179-199. ISSN 0121-4772.

This paper deals with the existence and identification of a common growth cycle between Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela. Evidence of synchronization between cycles of these countries through different non-parametric measures of conformity of the cycles and through a reference cycle is found. A Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive model (MS-VAR) is then used to identify the common cycle and the results confirm the existence of such a cycle. Finally, the common cycle is dated on the basis of smoothed probabilities and compared with a reference cycle.

Keywords : economic cycles; synchronization; Markov-switching.

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