Resumo

CASTRO, Diego Alejandro  e  PEREZ Y SOTO, Alejandro. Estimation of the probability of non-compliance with a Colombian financial company by enterprises in the economic, industrial, and commercial sectors between 2009 and 2014. Cuad. Econ. [online]. 2017, vol.36, n.71, pp.293-319. ISSN 0121-4772.  https://doi.org/10.15446/cuad.econ.v36n71.55273.

In this paper, we estimated the probability of non-compliance for enterprises that have contractual obligations with a Colombian financial company between 2009 and 2014. Using a generalized logistical ordinal model, we found that the probability of non-compliance is related to financial variables such as: liquidity, indebtedness, profitability, and efficacy. We also included a behavioural variable, two dichotomous variables associated with the size of the companies, and another variable for Colombia’s economic growth. We verify the premise of parallel lines. The results are predictable and correspond to the economic theory of risk.

JEL: C35, D21, G21.

Palavras-chave : Credit risk; generalized ordered logit; non-compliance probability; economic growth.

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