Abstract

POVEDA, Germán  and  ALVAREZ, Diana Milena. The Collapse of the Stationarity Hypothesis Due to Climate Change and Climate Variability: Implications for Hydrologic Engineering Design. rev.ing. [online]. 2012, n.36, pp.65-76. ISSN 0121-4993.

Traditional methods used in hydrologic engineering to estimate extreme river discharges of different return periods are based on the assumption of stationarity in the probability distribution function of the series of extreme fows. This hypothesis collapses owing to the effects of climate change, climate variability, land use/land change, and deforestation on the hydrological dynamics, which are refected into the series of hydrologic variables. We illustrate such effects on the hydrology of Colombia, and implement two models for estimating extreme river discharges using mixed probability distribution functions, which take into account the effects of climate variability on the series of extreme discharges. Application of these methods for Colombian rivers allowed us to conclude that the Mixed Type I Weibull distribution provides an adequate estimation for low fows, and the Fréchét Mixed Type I distribution for peak fows and foods

Keywords : Hydrology; peak flows; floods, low flows; stationary; Mixed Probability Distribution Function Models.

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