Abstract

SMIDA, Ali. Towards a memorization of signs of cross-impacts between strategic variables. Innovar [online]. 2010, vol.20, n.36, pp.205-217. ISSN 0121-5051.

In opposition to the formula "Everything being equal elsewhere" ("ceteris paribus") often used by economists, those who take the prospective approach propose the expression "Everything being changing elsewhere". This is why they have developed tools, in particular scenarios and cross-impact matrices, they have made available to Business Strategy. If scenarios are a great success in this area, the cross-impact matrices are however struggling to be taken by Business Strategists. One of the handicaps of these matrices is that they are "amnesic" about the signs of negative impacts caused or undergone by the actors or variables. There is, indeed, a loss of information as soon as we come to the indirect impacts, insofar as the product of an even number of negative signs gives a positive sign: the oppositions are thus hidden. This article proposes a method to trace the negative impacts, along a chain of actions and reactions. The illustration is done by studying the positive and negative impacts of the strategic variables related to the financing of drugs in French Sheltered Accommodations for Dependent Elderly People (EHPAD in French). Indeed, these impacts induced by the opposition of the pros and the cons to the inclusion of drugs in a package of care, resulted in a waltz of contradictory laws and regulations that are, nevertheless, shaping the future of French EHPADs.

Keywords : Cross-impact matrix; methodology; prospective approach; actors' strategy; health expenses; the elderly.

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