Resumo

RODRIGUEZ, JAVIER  e  PRIETO, SIGNED. DYNAMIC OF THE MALARIA EPIDEMIC: EPIDEMIC PATH PREDICTIONS. rev.fac.med [online]. 2010, vol.18, n.2, pp.152-1D6i. ISSN 0121-5256.

The theory of systems dynamics studies the state and evolution of systems. Newtonian physics in the context of differential equations of the second order, predicts the paths of the planets, which comprise the first dynamic system that has been solved. The epidemics dynamics has been associated to different causal factors such as climate, migration, and others. Making an analogy between proportions of the annual number of malaria cases and the distance, since 1960 to 2007, the initial velocity and acceleration of three years ranges were found; beginning with the second order differential equation for the acceleration, predictions of the epidemic path were made. These were plotted in polar coordinates, predicting the values ranges in which the epidemic path is located. It was found that the values of initial acceleration and initial velocity were between -6.66 to 9.22, and between 1 to 21, respectively. This finding is a prediction of all possible trajectories of the epidemic for these years without causal considerations. The values' ranges of paths of the malaria epidemic in 2005, 2006 and 2007 were correctly predicted through concentric circular attractors. The differential acausal law predicts ranges of the dynamics path, useful for public health decisions.

Palavras-chave : malaria; epidemics; trends; public health.

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