Abstract

RODRIGUEZ, JAVIER et al. DYNAMICS OF THE DENGUE EPIDEMIC IN COLOMBIA: PREDICTIONS OF THE EPIDEMIC TRAJECTORY. rev.fac.med [online]. 2013, vol.21, n.1, pp.38-45. ISSN 0121-5256.

Differential equations are classified according to type, order and whether they are linear or not; they can express natural phenomena laws such as Newton's movement laws, set in the context of kinematics for the planetary dynamic system. Dynamical systems theory has been a foundation along with other physical and mathematical theories, for the development of predictive methodologies in medicine. In a previous study, a prediction for the dynamics of Malaria Epidemic in Colombia was made, beginning with an analogy in the context of second order differential equations, finding a successful prediction for the infected ranges for the years 2005-2007, which represented trajectories correspond to concentric circular attractors. In the present study, the same methodology for Dengue Epidemic prediction was developed; considering the cases data from 1990 to 2007, initial velocity and initial acceleration for three year-ranges, making predictions of the epidemic from the second order differential equation for acceleration. Values of ranges were successfully predicted for Dengue Epidemic trajectories for 2005, 2006 and 2007, through concentric circular attractors; it was concluded that within the context of acausal differential equation the dynamic trajectory ranges may be predicted in a useful way for the Public Health decision making.

Keywords : Epidemic; dengue; dynamical systems; public health surveillance.

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