Abstract

RAMONI PERAZZI, JOSEFA  and  ORLANDONI MERLI, GIAMPAOLO. COLOMBIAN EXPORTS DO THEY EVOLVE TOWARDS A MORE VOLATILE MARKET?: AN ANALYSIS OF THE PERIOD 1974-2014. Rev.fac.cienc.econ. [online]. 2017, vol.25, n.1, pp.25-40. ISSN 0121-6805.  https://doi.org/10.18359/rfce.2652.

This study seeks to determine whether the Colombian economy moves toward a more unstable export structure, for which analyzes both; the evolution of the economy between 1974 and 2014, price volatility; understood as deviations around the measure, corrected or not by the trend and without trying to explain the reasons for the instability. The results show that Colombian exports follow a marked tendency to move minerals and energy products, rather than agricultural. Commodity prices generally tend to grow, reaching their peak in the first decade of the XXI century. Considered Volatility Indicators applied to traditional export products' price indexes and other combined price indexes suggest greater volatility in the markets to which Colombia exports move: minerals. With regard to the trend following the volatility in the prices considered, the results are inconclusive. While the basic indicators point to a growing fluctuation in agricultural prices, the range of Parkinson suggests otherwise.

Keywords : Exports; Colombia; Volatility; Commodities; Oil prices.

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