Abstract

CORREA DA SILVA, Maurício; BERNARDES DO NASCIMENTO, João Carlos Hipólito  and  GOMES DA SILVA, José Dionísio. Punctuated Equilibrium Theory: Analysis of Budget Execution in the State of Rio de Janeiro (2002-2018). Rev.fac.cienc.econ. [online]. 2020, vol.28, n.1, pp.27-46.  Epub Nov 24, 2020. ISSN 0121-6805.  https://doi.org/10.18359/rfce.4106.

The study aims to discuss from the punctuated equilibrium theory (pet) budget execution in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, between 2002 and 2018, to detect periods of stability or sudden (atypical) changes. The analyses are performed using updated data as of December 31, 2018. The Kolmogorov- Smirnov and Shapiro-Wilk tests are employed to determine the normality or not of scores and identify on the histogram whether the distribution is normal or leptokurtic with the same 5 % confidence level. The results suggest that decision-making in the budget execution of expenditure settled by nature group and by government function exhibited atypical behaviors. There are periods of equilibrium with interruptions, which corroborates the central hypothesis that the pet is valid to analyze the behavior of budget variations in Rio de Janeiro. It is concluded that state budgets are drawn up incrementally, but their executions have a pattern of equilibrium with interruptions. This research contributes to advancing the literature on the analyses of the implementation of budgetary policy by including total budget income and expenditure settled by nature group in the empirical tests. Theoretically, it adds to the discussions on budget planning in Brazil, interferences in budget execution due to partisan changes, and financial imbalance.

Keywords : budgetary policy; punctuated equilibrium theory; State of Rio de Janeiro; Brazil.

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