Resumo

BRAVO-MELO, Luis; TOVAR-CUEVAS, Rafael  e  ACHCAR, Jorge. Estimation of the Po si ti ve Predictive Value of the Magnetic re sonance Cholangiopancreatography using Bayes methods. Revista médica Risaralda [online]. 2015, vol.21, n.2, pp.19-26. ISSN 0122-0667.

Objetive: In this article we present different alternative to compute the Positive Predictive Value (PPV) for a diagnostic test. Method: we assumedthe VPP as a continuous and unknown quantity whose natural performance is susceptible of model using a distribution of probability. We use the method propose as Winkler and Smith to estimate the VPP using Bayesian procedure. We illustrate our methodology with a data set of patients with acute pranceatitis taken the Magnetic Cholangiopancreatogrphy as test to screening of Choledocoletise Results: The Bayesian approach allows to have a best estimates and the credibility regions were narrower than the confidence intervals. Discussion: thje use of Bayesian methods is an excellent choise to obtain more accute estimates. To estimateVPP’s using the observed data in table 2X2 implies mistakes when the sample size is not large enough as to think that the sample close the population size.

Palavras-chave : PPV; Sensitivity; Specificity; Prevalence; Elicitation.

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