Objective:

predict the behavior of the risk factors and the incidence of two cardiometabolic diseases in a population from Colombia between 2017 and 2050.

Methodology:

Follow up of individual’s cohort of an artificial society of Risaralda, Colombia, based on a microsimulation model. The risk factors analyzed in this study are tobacco use, obesity, central obesity and total cholesterol. A synthetic population was created to replicate demographic and health characteristics of Risaralda in 2010, using pairing algorithms and statistical imputation. The evolution along the life course was simulated based on rules from scientific literature, with stochastic equations and econometric estimates. The incidence of type II diabetes and ischemic stroke is calculated for the adult population between 2017 to 2050.

Results:

16.7% of the adults by 2050 is expected to be smokers, a third of them will have global obesity and more than half will have central obesity. The average level of serum total cholesterol would increase by 5 mg/dL. Additionally, is expected that between 2017 and 2050 there will be 204.966 incident cases of diabetes and 65.758 first-ever ischemic stroke events.

Conclusions:

Lifestyles and expected population aging will lead to greater risk of disease and will increase the rate at which local people will get diabetes and ischemic stroke. Risk factors like global and central obesity explain this trend. Effective intersectoral interventions are needed to protect the population and reduce tax burden due to preventable conditions.

        · abstract in Spanish     · text in Spanish     · Spanish ( pdf )