Resumo

RODRIGUEZ DE LUQUE, Jesús J. et al. Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean: 2020-2045. Cuad. Desarro. Rural [online]. 2016, vol.13, n.78, pp.11-34. ISSN 0122-1450.  https://doi.org/10.11144/Javeriana.cdri3-78.iscc.

Rice, wheat, corn, beans, and soybeans play an important role in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) due to their contributions to economy and food security. Given that there is evidence that there would be mid-term climate changes on a global scale; this article assesses the socio-economic impacts that would take place at LAC levels if adaptation measures were not implemented. To this end, we carried out an integration between climate, crop, and economic models. Results show that the growth of corn and beans production would fall significantly in Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Colombia, Venezuela and Brazil, and rice and wheat would decline significantly in Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay. Finally, we found that climate change has the capacity to partially curb the progress in food security in the region, due to its negative effects on food availability.

Palavras-chave : climate change; agriculture; food security; Latin America; Caribbean; economy.

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