Resumen

RIOS VELASQUEZ, ÁNGEL; MANCIPE BARRERO, BRAYAN STEVEN; GARCIA NAVARRO, JUAN GUILLERMO  y  JARAMILLO ROMERO, MARIO ALONSO. Forecasting and analysis of the reliability of a hydroelectric power plant in Colombia through the application of a time-varying failure rate. Ing. Desarro. [online]. 2024, vol.42, n.2, pp.224-243.  Epub 01-Jul-2024. ISSN 0122-3461.  https://doi.org/10.14482/inde.42.02.612.049.

Power generation in Colombia is strongly linked to hydroelectric power plants, which makes it crucial to optimize maintenance tasks to ensure maximum availability. For this reason, this work focuses on analyzing the reliability of a hydroelectric power plant in order to support decision-making in maintenance planning. The research is based on the historical data of the power plant, in which the reports that cause its unavailability are recorded. From this information, the mean time between failures (MTBF) of the equipment and its reliability was determined, as well as that of the two generating units that make up the power plant. Finally, a method based on the technical indicator EMA (exponential moving average) was applied to predict the reliability trend over time. The results obtained provided an assessment of the status of the hydroelectric power plant and made it possible to identify the critical equipment in terms of failures, to which resources should be allocated to strengthen the plant's availability.

Palabras clave : hydroelectric power plant; reliability; exponential distribution; moving average; MTBF.

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