Resumo

CORDOVA AQUINO, Beatriz Pilar  e  INCIO CORONADO, Jose Luis. Incumbency Advantage at the Subnational Level: An Analysis of the Two Latest Peruvian Municipal Elections. Pap.polit. [online]. 2013, vol.18, n.2, pp.415-436. ISSN 0122-4409.

There is a prolific debate in contemporary political science involving the determinants of candidates' vote share. Incumbency has been identified as one of the strongest explanatory variables, hence in some contexts this condition may translate, for candidates hoping to win their reelection, a substantive advantage in comparison to challengers, even in highly partisan scenarios. However, this apparent advantage has been questioned in contexts where the level of consolidation of political and party system is still limited, concluding that in such contexts incumbency has a harmful effect upon these candidates. This research constitutes the very first effort to tackle this topic in the Peruvian political context. Therefore, we propose a methodological model suitable for the assessment of electoral performance of candidates in two instances: when these candidates are still not incumbents and, afterwards, when they become so. According to the latest findings regarding this topic, we prove Peruvian results to be similar to those from the group of countries where incumbency is conceived as a disadvantage for candidates.

Palavras-chave : Incumbency; incumbent; electoral advantage; electoral competition; Peru; citizen participation; political aspects; electoral systems; municipal elections; political campaign; political tactics.

        · resumo em Espanhol     · texto em Espanhol     · Espanhol ( pdf )