Resumo

MARTINEZ-QUINTERO, Bedir Germán; ECHEVERRI-RUBIO, Alejandro  e  GAVIRIA-ORTIZ, Fabián Guillermo. POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF Oxysternon conspicillatum (WEBER, 1801) IN DIFFERENT CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN COLOMBIA. Bol. Cient. Mus. Hist. Nat. Univ. Caldas [online]. 2017, vol.21, n.2, pp.190-206. ISSN 0123-3068.  https://doi.org/10.17151/bccm.2017.21.2.13.

Climate change scenarios are useful tools for impact assessment, adaptation and mitigation initiatives, and climate modeling wich are projected over time to predict the unit of habitat in which the species are. In addition, the species distribution models estimate the area of occupation of an organism with bioindicator potential such as dung beetles, including the species Oxysternon conspicillatum with a wide geographic distribution in Colombia. The purpose of this work was to determine the potential distribution of O. conspicillatum in a pessimist (A2) and an optimist (B1) climate change scenario in Colombia in the years 2050 and 2080. For the development of the model, published and/or deposited in different collections of the country samples was collected so that 427 records were obtained, distributed in 11 sources of information. The species was recorded in 18 departments from which the Coffee Triangle was the area that showed greater availability of geographic data. It was found that the probability of occupation of O. conspicillatum in the Eastern Cordillera will decrease drastically for these two years. This result coincides with what was observed in other bioindicator groups such as plants and butterflies. O. conspicillatum is a widely distributed species in Colombia. However, for the years 2050 and 2080 under the two climate change scenarios (A2 and B1) it wil show a considerable decrease in its presence at the national level.

Palavras-chave : area of occupation; climate change; modeling; MaxEnt; bioindicator.

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