SciELO - Scientific Electronic Library Online

vol.22 issue2Physical accessibility of the population to public health services in San Pelayo and Cereté, Córdoba, Colombia, year 2015Generalized Linear Models (GLM) for spatial interpolation of PM10 using Landsat satellite images for the city of Bogotá, Colombia author indexsubject indexarticles search
Home Pagealphabetic serial listing  

Services on Demand



Related links

  • On index processCited by Google
  • Have no similar articlesSimilars in SciELO
  • On index processSimilars in Google


Perspectiva Geográfica

Print version ISSN 0123-3769


MONTOYA GONZALEZ, Angie Andrea; ORTIZ BELTRAN, Fabián Gabriel  and  SANTA GUZMAN, Luis Fernando. Bayesian model for the study of dengue disease in the department of Atlántico Colombia years 2010 to 2013. Perspectiva Geográfica [online]. 2017, vol.22, n.2, pp.85-104. ISSN 0123-3769.

This papers aims to study the relationship between dengue cases and the variables given by the social, geographic and economic data of the 23 municipalities of the department of Atlantico, Colombia, through the use of completely. It was possible to analyze 7.786 cases of dengue presented in the four years of study, finding that the municipalities most affected by amount of population were Tubará, Candelaria, Puerto Colombia, Baranoa, Polonuevo and Ponedera. The best model was chosen for each year of study, based on the Deviation Information Criterion (DIC), it was found that the variables related to the social characteristics present in the dwellings and the disordered growth of the urban center were those that had the greatest influence In the increase of the number of dengue cases. The Bayesian model allowed the identification of the relationship of dengue with factors outside the health sector, establishing areas of higher risk of disease.

Keywords : Atlantico; Colombia; dengue; epidemiology; spatial statistics; Bayesian model.

        · abstract in Spanish | Portuguese     · text in Spanish     · Spanish ( pdf )