Abstract

SEPULVEDA RIVILLAS, CLAUDIA; REINA GUTIERREZ, WALTER  and  GUTIERREZ BETANCUR, JUAN CARLOS. Credit risk estimation for companies in the manufacturing industry in Colombia. estud.gerenc. [online]. 2012, vol.28, n.124, pp.169-190. ISSN 0123-5923.

This research proposes a probit model for unbalanced panel data with random effects for estimating the probability of bankruptcy of companies in the manufacturing sector in Colombia in order to infer credit risk using information from the databases of the Superintendence of Companies and BPR from 2002 to 2008 about solvent and financially distressed companies. This was based on a fundamental analysis focusing on Penman's (2010) profitability, leverage, liquidity and solvency indicators. The contribution of this research is the emphasis on operating and financial leverage and its effect on the probability of bankruptcy. The main finding underlines the less harmful effect of operating leverage in comparison to financial leverage in times of crisis.

Keywords : Operating and financial leverage; probability of bankruptcy; unbalanced panel data.

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