Abstract

VILLARREAL-SAMANIEGO, Dacio. The dynamics of oil prices, COVID-19, and exchange rates in five emerging economies in the atypical first quarter of 2020. estud.gerenc. [online]. 2021, vol.37, n.158, pp.17-27.  Epub Mar 19, 2021. ISSN 0123-5923.  https://doi.org/10.18046/j.estger.2021.158.4042.

The spread of the COVID-19 and the drop in oil prices caused financial turmoil during the first quarter of 2020. This paper aims to examine the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic, oil prices, and the exchange rates to the U. S. dollar during that period in five emerging economies: two oil-importers and three oil-exporters. The results of the autoregressive distributed lag analyses reveal a positive co-movement between the fatality rates and the exchange rates of three of those countries. The study also found a negative relationship between oil prices and the exchange rates of the five countries.

JEL classification: F31; G01; Q40.

Keywords : foreign exchange; COVID-19; oil prices; cointegration.

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