Abstract

LONDONO, Daniel et al. Criminal behavior in Medellin in times of the pandemic crisis, a spatio-temporal model. estud.gerenc. [online]. 2021, vol.37, n.159, pp.188-199.  Epub July 27, 2021. ISSN 0123-5923.  https://doi.org/10.18046/j.estger.2021.159.4186.

This paper aimed to identify the effect that the implementation of preventive mandatory social isolation had on the dynamics of security and coexistence in Medellín, Colombia. Using a Bayesian structural time-series model, the weight of this preventive measure in the variation of the indicators was calculated: homicides, forced intra-urban displacement, robbery, motorcycles theft, car theft, sexual crimes, family violence, fights, and personal injuries. The results showed this measure had a direct and significant impact on the behavior of the indicators considered; there were increases between 9.8% and 173%, and decreases between 22.9% and 85%, compared to the projections without this measure.

Keywords : crime; security; COVID-19; preventive mandatory isolation; bayesian analysis.

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