Objective:

To demonstrate the effect of demographic changes envisaged by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on the burden of cancer in Colombia.

Method:

The number of new cases of cancer was established in the top five locations in patients > 15 years-old, using the incidence rates of cancer for each Department, Bogotá, and the Amazonas group, estimated by the National Cancer Institute of Colombia and the population projections for 2020 by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (NADS), and 2050 by ECLAC.

Results:

The number of these new cases could increase by 28% in men and 25% in women by 2020, but by 2050 the increase would be 58% in both sexes. The disease in these locations would be concentrated much more in people over 65 in 2050, from 62% to 75% in men and 33% to 53% in women. More than three-quarters of them would be prostate, stomach, and lung cancer in men, and in women breast, cervical and colorectal cancer in most Departments of the country.

Conclusions:

It is necessary to reflect on the construction of public policy on cancer health care, by measuring, comparing and disseminating the results of prevention and timely detection by health providers. Reflection is also required on the diagnostic and treatment services available in all regions and in the meaning of cancer care in the elderly, palliative care at all levels with a focus on public health, and social support for caregivers.

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