Resumo

ARANDA-LOZANO, Diego F.; GONZALEZ-PARRA, Gilberto C.  e  QUERALES, José. Modelling respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission children aged less than five years-old. Rev. salud pública [online]. 2013, vol.15, n.4, pp.689-700. ISSN 0124-0064.

Objectives Studying respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission dynamics in a population of children aged less than 5 years-old using deterministic models. Method A deterministic susceptible-infected-removed(SIR) mathematical model with seasonal forcing was used for the simulation. Results A mathematical epidemiological model (SIRS) with seasonal forcing was proposed which explained RSV dynamics between 2005 and 2010 in a population of children aged less than five years-old in Bogotá. Conclusions The mathematical model (SIRS) with seasonal forcing explained the cyclical pattern of cases of children aged less than five years old infected with RSV in Bogotá, Colombia during the target period.

Palavras-chave : Respiratory syncytial virus; respiratory tract infection; epidemiologic research design.

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