Abstract

SEPULVEDA-SALCEDO, Lilian S; VASILIEVA, Olga; MARTINEZ-ROMERO, Héctor J  and  ARIAS-CASTRO, Judy H. Ross-Macdonald: A model for the dengue dynamic in Cali, Colombia. Rev. salud pública [online]. 2015, vol.17, n.5, pp.749-761. ISSN 0124-0064.  https://doi.org/10.15446/rsap.v17n5.44685.

Dengue is an infection transmitted by mosquitoes and is present in all tropical and subtropical regions of the planet. In recent years, the transmission of the disease has increased, predominantly in urban and semi-urban areas, and has become an important public health problem. The National Health Institute (Instituto Nacional de Salud-INS) determined Cali to be the municipality with the most cases of dengue in Colombia. According to the INS, up to epidemiological week 18 (April 28 to May 4, 2013) 5 134 cases of dengue -and 171 cases of severe dengue- have been reported. This study presents a description of the Ross-Macdonald model, and qualitative analysis of this model, and an analysis of the sensitivity of the model to changes in its parameters. Based on the adjustment of the model obtained for cases that occurred in 2010, simulations of possible scenarios of epidemic outbreaks in the city of Cali are created and analyzed.

Keywords : Dengue; mathematical models; qualitative analysis; computer simulation.

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