Resumo

MEJIA GUINAND, Luis Bernardo; BARINAS FORERO, Andrés Felipe  e  MORA OVIEDO, Michelle Lorena. Is it Time for a Minister Change? Cabinet Survival in Colombia 1958-2018. Desafíos [online]. 2021, vol.33, n.2, pp.72-104.  Epub 15-Abr-2022. ISSN 0124-4035.  https://doi.org/10.12804/revistas.urosario.edu.co/desafios/a.8524.

This paper analyzes the formation and survival of presidential cabinets in Colombia between 1958 and 2018. We compare two periods in the country's political history: During the first period, 1958 to 1990, Colombia operated with a two-party system. The second period, 1991 to the present, is characterized by the opening of the political regime to new parties and the formation of coalition governments. For this purpose, we use semi-parametric models and Cox regressions that allow us to estimate the survival of 581 ministerial appointments and identify the predictors of survival in their positions from both individual characteristics of the ministers and the institutional characteristics of the system. The study shows that the stability in the position of ministers during the bipartisan era is lower than the duration of ministers during the period of coalition governments.

JEL classification: D72, H19, D78.

Palavras-chave : Presidential cabinet; survival of ministers; coalition presidentialism; Colombia.

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