Abstract

CASTRILLON, Alberto. PROBABILISM: ETHICS AND ECONOMICS. Rev.econ.inst. [online]. 2003, vol.5, n.9, pp.55-77. ISSN 0124-5996.

This essay makes reference to the Scholastic doctrine of moral probabilism and explores the possible links between this theological perspective and the modern concept of probability. It shows that these concepts are more related than is suggested by common etymological approaches. Moral probabilism helped confessors to solve cases of conscience, without reducing the problem of human liberty to the extremes of randomness or determinism. Also, it suggests an analogy between the probabilistic approach and Keynes's Treatise on Probability: for both Scholastic authors and Keynes economic analysis emerges from moral analysis.

Keywords : probabilism; scholastic; ethics and economics; Keynes.

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