Abstract

GARCIA MOLINA, Mario. Probability and uncertainty, an approach from the history of thought. Rev.econ.inst. [online]. 2016, vol.18, n.35, pp.101-122. ISSN 0124-5996.  https://doi.org/10.18601/01245996.v18n35.06.

Radical uncertainty has been defined as non-probabilistic; however this definition is insufficient as there is no unique notion of probability. The article makes a historical presentation of equiprobabilistic, frequentist and Bayesian definitions of probability and proposes a notion of uncertainty resulting from these definitions. Keynes theory of animal spirits is presented as an explanation of human action in an uncertain social world.

Keywords : Probability; uncertainty; Keynes; decision; judgment.

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