Abstract

GARCIA-MOLINA, Mario  and  CHICAIZA, Liliana Alejandra. Brexit, peace and Trump: lessons for economists. Rev.econ.inst. [online]. 2018, vol.20, n.38, pp.129-156. ISSN 0124-5996.  https://doi.org/10.18601/01245996.v20n38.06.

This essay analyzes three elections that had unexpected results: the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union, the rejection of the peace agreement in Colombia and the election ofTrump as president of the United States. It emphasizes three aspects: the predictions were made in a situation of uncertainty based on rules or conventions, the campaigns involved strong emotional elements and the results were affected by cultural factors (identity and religious) and not only economic ones. Standard economics omits such factors although it should take them into account.

JEL: A12, D84, D87, D91.

Keywords : Brexit; peace process; Trump; psychology; cognitive biases; decision making.

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