Abstract

GONZALEZ, Jorge Iván. Planning and uncertainty. Rev.econ.inst. [online]. 2021, vol.23, n.44, pp.233-248.  Epub May 02, 2021. ISSN 0124-5996.  https://doi.org/10.18601/01245996.v23n44.11.

This article examines the problems of planning under conditions of uncertainty. Planning is always necessary, but exercise can be done in many different ways. Here the difference between planning based on class probability and planning based on case probability is established, and it is shown so that the latter prevails, it is inadequate and fails. An example of its limitations is the mishandling of the crisis caused by COVID-19. It is proposed, then, to turn our gaze towards class probability, which is necessary and sufficient to raise the planning options adequately. Although this exercise is relevant, planning requires an additional step, that of collective choice, and it is then inescapable to ask about the ethical dimension. The size of the state is resolved in the political arena, and in democratic societies it must be compatible with the exercise of freedom.

Keywords : planning; uncertainty; public policy; size of the State; democracy; JEL: B41, D6, D80, H00, I1.

        · abstract in Spanish | Portuguese     · text in Spanish     · Spanish ( pdf )