Objective:

To establish the vulnerability of each socioeconomic stratum of the municipality of Sincelejo in terms of probabilities of falling into monetary poverty due to deterioration of labor income caused by adverse economic events, induced by other phenomena such as the current expansion of Covid 19.

Method:

Estimation of two econometric Logit models with information from 541 surveys of the quality of life type, applied to the same number of households in the municipality of Sincelejo in 2017.

Results:

The estimated models are adequate because the estimators, considered individually, are statistically significant with a confidence level greater than 99%, as well as the model considered globally is statistically significant with the same confidence level, since the LR statistic has a p< 0.01 value. In addition, the fit of the two models in good because the percentages of correct predictions are 85.03% and 79.45%.

Conclusions:

The empirical evidence shows, although all people are exposed to unfavorable economic phenomena, those in the low stratum are more likely to be left in conditions of poverty, i.e. they have a high degree of vulnerability and an inverse relationship between socioeconomic strata and degrees of vulnerability is confirmed. On the other hand, Colombian laws have been ineffective in solving the problems associated with poverty and therefore, if we wish to guarantee a sustained reduction of poverty, it is necessary that public policies become effective and focus on both the poor and the vulnerable population.

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