CORREDOR RIVERA, Jorge Luis    PENARANDA VELEZ, Víctor Manuel. IDENTIFYING PARAMETERS OF A CURVE MODEL NUMBER AND MONTHLY UNCERTAINTY AT BOGOTA UPPER BASIN. []. , 22, 1, pp.75-93. ISSN 0124-8170.

ABSTRACT Hydro-meteorological studies involve large data volumes that may have disruptions related to length of their record periods, wrong data, inconsistent data, or data transcription errors to be included in databases. Likewise a hydro-meteorological network not necessarily offers the best arrangement in a given region. There are also areas where there is not any station to give a local interpretation about time and spatial variation of meteorological variables. Therefore, it is required to have information exploration techniques in order to find series representing the behavior of a particular variable for its application by modeling processes, if required. This article reports a research scope of hydrologic modeling focused upon an identification of parameters of a curve number model and a development of an uncertainty analysis following the methodological standard Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation Glue) in order to establish the uncertainty levels of monthly rainfall-runoff modeling protocols upon hydrologic systems based on scarce information. To develop this research, Bogotá upper basin has been selected as the hydrologic system for exploration having enough and adjusted information to implement hydro-meteorological models and the Glue. Preliminary results exhibit some issues to identify other relevant parameters; however, inclusion of a new variable in the standard model illustrates the possibility to explain the groundwater systems related to description of type, usage and land cover based on a strict and convenient curve number selection.

: Glue; uncertainty; curve number.

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