Abstract

CHALAPUD, Eduardo D.. STRATEGIC FORESIGHT OF THE COMMERCE SUBSECTOR OF THE MUNICIPALITY OF IPIALES - COLOMBIA, TOWARDS THE YEAR 2030. Tend. [online]. 2022, vol.23, n.1, pp.139-166.  Epub Feb 11, 2022. ISSN 0124-8693.  https://doi.org/10.22267/rtend.222301.186.

This article is a prospective study of the wholesale and retail trade subsector in the Colombian-Ecuadorian border zone, specifically in the municipality of Ipiales, towards the year 2030. Its importance in the economic dynamics positions it as the main activity and source of employment generation; therefore, it is necessary to strengthen it by examining the influence of various indispensable factors in the present and its development in the future. Incidence factors are examined and converted into key variables by experts using the Mic Mac method; through the analysis of actors, the relations of convergence and divergence between them are ascertained and scenarios are developed using Morphological analysis. Finally, immediate, challenge and less urgent strategies are classified to be carried out, which, with their implementation, facilitate the fulfillment of the bet scenario. The aim is to redesign the value and supply chain, take advantage of the road infrastructure, participate directly with the production centers, strengthen associativity and the border trade cluster.

JEL: R11; H11; L23; L8; L91

Keywords : regional economic activity; competitiveness; organization of production; services; transportation..

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