Abstract

PABON, J.D. et al. MODELING THE EFFECT OF LAND USE CHANGE IN THE LOCAL-REGIONAL CLIMATE OVER THE COLOMBIAN ANDES. Rev. acad. colomb. cienc. exact. fis. nat. [online]. 2013, vol.37, n.144, pp.379-391. ISSN 0370-3908.

Using PRECIS model, a simulation of the climate for a Colombian Andean region was carried out, as basis for exploring the impact of the land use change in regional climate. This model reproduces satisfactorily the spatial distribution and the annual cycle of annual precipitation and annual mean temperature, but it overestimates the values of these variables. For the places where data of observation were available for comparing, PRECIS also acceptably reproduced the regional inter-annual variability of annual mean air temperature and annual precipitation. Differences between observed and simulated were adjusted using a simple coefficient obtained from the simulated/observed relationship. With an intervention in the model consisting in the modification of the land cover used by the model in the first simulation by the real observed in the region in1985, a new experiment was made. The comparison allows establish that this modification produced negligible changes for natural environment and notorious change in precipitation when the alteration of the land use is from "pastures and trees" to "tropical forest with broad leaf" and from "pastures and trees" to "land with arable crops".

Keywords : Changes in land use; local climates; northern Andes.

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