Perfil de Coyuntura Económica
versão impressa ISSN 1657-4214
ARGUELLO C., Ricardo. La crisis económica internacional, el Canal de Comercio y la Economía Colombiana. Perf. de Coyunt. Econ. [online]. 2009, n.13, pp. 9-32. ISSN 1657-4214.
This research attempts to provide an avenue for assessing the short run impact of the financial and economic crisis on the Colombian economy, as it is transmitted along and (mostly) only through the trade channel. For this a real sector model is used, the multiregion, constant returns to scale, computable general equilibrium GTAP model. The modeling strategy is based on implementing a negative shock to the capital stock of the US and EU's economies, in such a way that the resulting behavior of the value of GDP is close to that forecasted for 2009 by the IMF. The main results indicate that the economy may shrink in the vicinity of 1,54 per cent. If trade changes respond accordingly to an estimated elasticity of trade to growth, Colombian real trade flows may decline by 5,7 per cent. As the consumer price index decreases in 1,3 per cent, the decline in real GDP would be around 0,24 per cent.
Palavras-chave : international trade; global crisis; Colombia; computable general equilibrium.