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Perfil de Coyuntura Económica

On-line version ISSN 1657-4214

Abstract

PENA, Carlo. Exogenous shocks, macroeconomic dynamics and private investment. Venezuela, 1968-2009. Perf. de Coyunt. Econ. [online]. 2010, n.16, pp.171-190. ISSN 1657-4214.

Within 1968-2009 Venezuela's economy, in general, and private investment, in particular, have gone through a path marked by deep macroeconomic instabilities mainly associated to political and institutional deterioration, discretionary economic policy, cyclical and structural changes and negative external shocks produced by the imbalances in oil market. In this context, the dynamics of private investment can be affected by two different types of disturbances: transitory or permanent; while the former can have short run effects, the later may indicate long runresults. Nevertheless, theseevents may be associatedto a variety of exogenous shocks that have altered the country's economic structure. To determine so, we will use time series methodology, specifically unit root tests, both classic and in the presence of structural changes. Hence, the main purposes of this study are to delve into the knowledge of the exogenous shocks that alter macroeconomic stability and to establish economic policy strategies that aid in the reduction of the negative impacts of those disturbances.

Keywords : private investment; unit root tests; structural change; stationarity.

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