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Perfil de Coyuntura Económica

versão On-line ISSN 1657-4214

Resumo

MARTINEZ ROLDAN, Luis Esteban et al. Economic cycles in LAFTA or LAIA, CAN, CAFTA, CACM: 1960-2008. Perf. de Coyunt. Econ. [online]. 2012, n.20, pp.127-153. ISSN 1657-4214.

The paper analyze the business cycles of countries that sign trade agreements of ALAC or ALADI, CAFTA, MCCA and CAN, it is order to find arguments to prove or contradict a possible synchronization of business cycles in Latin America. Analysis is performed through the study of business cycle correlations, for which use is made of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) to extract the trend component of the series. After obtaining the cycle component of the series is an examination of the correlations between countries, it is analysis will find the degree of relationship between economies. In synthesis there are interesting relationships between some members, but their links are not strong enough to speak of a common cycle, therefore we can to say don’t show signs of economic synchronization.

Palavras-chave : Synchronization; Cycles business; Export; Trade Agreements; Filter Hodrick-Prescott.

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